Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble
◎ TALKS GIVEN IN THE BUDDHA HALL BY DEVELOPING VIRTUE SECONDARY SCHOOL
BASED ON LESTER BROWN'S BOOK WITH THE SAME TITLE
Editor’s note: The book Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble was a supplemental text used in Ms. Leonie Tan’s Economics class at Developing Virtue Secondary School (Girls Division). In it, Lester R. Brown, founder and President of Earth Policy Institute and founder of Worldwatch Institute, describes a vision for an environmentally sustainable economy which we hope the younger generation will help to make a reality.
Rescue the Earth Under Stress GIVEN AND TRANSLATED BY YVONNE CHEN
What I’m going to share is some very disturbing and worrisome facts, the facts that we are rapidly destroying our planet, the Earth. The first fact is the shrinking forests and the price we have to pay for it. Tree cutting is followed by several severe flooding and heavy loss of life of man’s lives. At the beginning of 12 century, the Earth’s forested areas were estimated at 5 billion hectares. Since then it has shrunk to 3.9 billion hectares. Since 1990, the forests lost in developing countries have averaged 13 millions hectares a year. Overall the developing world is losing 6% of its forests per decade. Despite the fact that people are restoring forests, tropical forests that are cleared rarely recovered and become wastelands.
The use of firewood, paper and lumber are expanding. Of 3.34 million cubic meters of wood harvested worldwide in the year 2003, over half was used for fuel. Logging for lumber affects the forest greatly. Collectively, the forest pumps millions of liters of water daily to the atmosphere. The evapotranspiration translates into summer rainfall, helping to sustain crops. When the forests disappear, this rainfall declines and so do crop yields.
The second fact is the loss of soil. The thin layer of topsoil that covers the planet’s land surface took eons to accumulate. Soil provides the medium in which plants can grow. In exchange, plants help protect the soil from erosion. A third or more of all cropland is losing soil faster than new soil is forming, which reduces land productivity. With soil decreasing so rapidly, crops and plants will be unable to grow on the land and we will be handicapped. Rangelands, which are too dry, too steep, or not fertile enough to sustain crop production, constitute about one-fifth of the land’s surface. It supports the world’s 3.2 billion cattle, sheep, and goats. These animals are destroying the land’s productive vegetation. The wind then removes the soil and converts the once productive rangelands into deserts.
The third fact is the collapse of fisheries. The amount of oceanic fish caught climbed from 19 million tons in 1950 to the peak of 93 million tons in 1997. Today, 75 percent of fisheries are being fished at or beyond their sustainable capacity. The growing worldwide demand for seafood can no longer be satisfied by expanding the oceanic fish catch. If it is to be satisfied, it will be by expanding fish farming. However, once fish are put into cages, they will have to be fed, which will put even more pressure on resources.
The fourth fact is the disappearance of plants and animals. We are now in the early stage of the sixth great extinction. However, unlike the five before this, this extinction is caused not by natural events, but by humans. Twelve percent of the world’s nearly 100,000 bird species, 23 percent of the world’s 4,776 mammal species, and 46 percent of the world’s fish species are vulnerable to extinction. The threat to these species comes from environmental pollution, overharvesting, and overdeveloping habitats.
We have to believe from the above facts that mankind is leading the earth to an end. The only hope is to put every effort into promoting vegetarianism, stopping killing, recycling, and protecting our forests. Thus, the ozone layer will be improved and the climate will be stabilized. Our mother earth, and we as human beings, will then have a chance to survive.
Beyond the Oil Peak BY JULIA HA /CHINESE TRANSLATED BY CLAIRE CHIN
Oil has been one of the key components shaping our twenty-first century and our society relies on oil for everything from agriculture to industry. When oil production peaks, or in other words slows down or even stops, the world will have to face many new and disastrous obstacles and the world will not be the way it is today. Unfortunately, that new world is where we are headed.
There are 23 leading oil producers in the world and oil has peaked in 15 of them and eight countries are nearing peak oil. Some examples of post-peak countries are the United States, Venezuela, the United Kingdom, and Norway, peaking in 1970, 1970, 1999, and 2000, respectively. The eight pre-peak countries are Saudi Arabia, which produced 11 million barrels of oil in 2005, Russia which produced 9 million barrels, Canada, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Angola, China, and Mexico.
What is worse is that many oil production companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell, Chevron Texaco, and Conoco-Phillips, reported that in 2004 they produced more oil than they discovered, meaning that it is getting harder and harder to find oil, especially since it is predicted that there is only 5% of oil left in the world to be discovered. Geologist Walter Youngquist says that in 2004 the world produced 30.5 billion barrels of oil but discovered only 7.5 billion barrels of new oil.
A decline in oil production will affect the food industry in ways unimaginable to today’s society. For instance, according to Lester R. Brown, the author of the book, Plan B 2.0, in the United States, transport, processing, packaging, marketing, and kitchen preparation of food account for nearly four-fifths of food system energy use, and it is said that the U.S. food economy uses as much energy as France does in its entire economy. So without sufficient oil, how can the United State’s food industry, not to mention the world’s, survive? Furthermore, food staples such as wheat and corn usually travel long distances by ship to get to where it is wanted while fresh fruit and vegetables tend to travel by air, and so how will we continue to ship these products using boats and airplanes if there is not enough fuel? From this we conclude that in the long run, people will have to adjust their diet, consuming more of locally grown products because daily transports of fruits, vegetables, and food staples from all around the world will be nearly impossible, and food will become more costly as higher oil prices cause production costs to go up.
Urban living costs will rise dramatically after peak oil. For example, cities will be affected a great deal but suburbs, especially poorly designed suburbs, will be devastated. People living in poorly designed suburbs are also usually geographically isolated from their jobs and shops, meaning that they have to drive to get everything they need. Soon, people will have to find other types of transportation to get around as gas prices continue to rise higher and higher.
The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy show that now the world is consuming approximately 84 million barrels of oil a day but in 2030, the world will consume about 120 million barrels a day, especially due to a projected population boom and the hope that many countries will become more developed and high-tech, thus also more energy-intensive. Our world will have to restructure itself as airline tickets become more expensive, sending packages by air is no longer an option, and production of non-hybrid cars is completely forgotten.
In order to solve this problem the world not only has to use oil more efficiently but we also have to begin looking at other sources of energy. Nuclear power is very unlikely due to high energy costs, and coal contributes way too much to climate change. So, Plan B tells us that we must look at renewable sources of energy, such as wind energy, solar cells, solar thermal panels and power plants, geothermal energy, hydropower, wave power, and biofuels, because these sources of energy are inexhaustible, meaning they can never be used up. Some countries are already trying to convert to renewable energy and though it is definitely a long process, it is very doable. So we must stand up and become activists in conserving oil and reverting to renewable energy sources, or else tomorrow might be the day our world has been dreading.
The big question is what can we as individuals do to help sustain our world? We can start by switching off lights, computers, televisions, and other electrical devices when we aren’t using them, thereby conserving energy. By walking or riding our bikes instead of driving, we can help make the world a better, cleaner place. By taking these small steps and by working together, we will be able to save the world.
Restoring the Earth BY GOPIKA MISRI /CHINESE TRANSLATED BY CLAIRE CHIN
With the economy’s environmental support systems collapsing, from the erosion of croplands, shrinking harvests, falling water tables, wells drying, collapsing fisheries, shrinking forests, to the rise in temperature scorching crops, it is impossible for there to be a successful poverty-eradication system. Plan B promotes an immense global effort to restore the earth in order not to fall into the whirlpool of destruction described by Craig Cox, the Director of the U.S.-based Soil and Water Conservation Society. “…Ecological and social collapses have reinforced each other in a downward spiral into poverty, environmental degradation, social injustice, disease, and violence.” This international effort includes an increase in the protection and restoration of forests, conservation and rebuilding of soils, meeting nature’s water needs, the regeneration of fisheries, and the protection of plant and animal diversity.
There are several ways to help protect and restore forests, including reducing paper use and fuel wood use. The ten top paper-producing countries have rates of paper recycling ranging from China at the lower end recycling 27% of the paper it produces, to Germany at the higher end recycling 72%. If every country recycled as much paper as Germany, the amount of wood pulp needed to produce paper would drop by one third. Many countries are trying to improve, like the United States, which has had a throwaway mentality present through the past century with disposable paper items, such as paper napkins, disposable diapers, and facial tissues. It is possible to reduce paper use greatly just by replacing these disposable accessories with more economical alternatives.
Developing alternative cooking methods using renewable sources of fuel would also lessen the load on forests. Half of the wood removed from forests is used as fuel. Alternative cooking fuels include wind, solar, and geothermal energy. Forestry is also important to prevent flooding, erosions, and landslides. For deforestated areas, Rutgers University biology professor Reed Funk suggests planting nuts, which are a good source of protein and can be converted into ethanol. Forests are protected by nonprofit organizations, one of the most rigorous international groups being the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC).
Some countries that realize that forests and trees are needed for a variety of reasons, and five of them, China, Russia, United States, India, and Japan, are responsible for two-thirds of the trees planted globally. Tree plantation requires a lot of water and the land used for tree plantations are generally suitable for growing crops. A great example of restoring forests is Korea, with forests covering 65% of the land. China has used tree plantation to lessen flooding in the Yangzi area, and is suggesting building a green wall of forestry to ward of the expanding Gobi Desert. Other than China, Algeria and Nigeria are also proposing to create green walls to try to halt the expanding Sahara Desert. In order to halt the expanding desert in Inner Mongolia, efforts need to made to plant more shrubs and to replace sheep and goats with dairy cattle to help increase the income of the nation. Sheep and goats eat the vegetation and also pulverize the protective crust of top soil with their hooves.
In the 1930s, the United States was hit with the Dust Bowl, with winds that carried off the nutritious top soil. Agricultural methods were developed to help conserve soil. In 1985, Congress passed a Conservation Reserve Program to reduce soil erosion using practices such as conservation tillage and no-till. As a result the soil erosion dropped from 3.1 to 1.9 billion tons.
Another way to restore the earth is to meet nature’s water needs. Sandra Postel and Brian Ritcher describe South Africa’s 1998 Water Act as a model for other countries. First is the need for basic commodities, such as drinking, cooking, and sanitation. Another is to support river ecosystems, which increases biodiversity and secures the services provided to societies. Restoring river ecosystems helps restore wildlife population. Dams and other barriers are being broken to help the river resume its original flow.
The last way to restore the earth proposed by Plan B, is to regenerate fisheries or create marine reserves or marine parks. Because there is so much fishing and not enough fish, these reserves are necessary to keep different species alive and encourage their health and quantitative growth. Fishery restoration also requires a reduction of nutrient flows from fertilizer runoff and untreated sewage. The nutrients lead to algal booms which take all the oxygen from the water, creating dead-zones, where no fish can live. Governments also need to reduce fishery subsidies to give fisheries time to regenerate.
The total cost of restoring the earth was estimated at 93 billion dollars per year, including the additional costs of reforesting the earth [6 billion], protecting topsoil [24 billion], restoring rangelands [9 billion], restoring fisheries [13 billion], protecting biological diversity [31 billion], and stabilizing water tables [10 billion]. If you compare this to some of the costs the world is paying that are leading us in the opposite direction and are not necessary, you will conclude that it is absolutely necessary to pay these costs, for how could we afford the consequences?
Stabilizing Climate BY JENNIFER DEDE / CHINESE TRANSLATED BY TIFFANY LEE
●Raising Energy Productivity
Some countries in Europe have basically the same living standard as in the United States, yet they use about half as much energy per person. Each individual country would have to come up with its own plan for raising energy productivity, but there are some common factors. Examples are using more energy-efficient household appliances, moving from gas to hybrid cars, redesigning public transportation systems to increase efficiency, etc.
●Harnessing the Wind
There are six reasons why wind power is growing so quickly: It is 1) abundant, 2) cheap, 3) inexhaustible, 4) widely distributed, 5) clean, and 6) climate-friendly. Europe is leading the world into the age of wind energy. Countries like Germany, Spain, and Denmark all carry impressive statistics. By 2020, wind-generated electricity is predicted to fulfill the residential needs of 195 million customers, which is half of Europe’s population. One of wind’s greatest advantages is that it is plentiful. North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas alone could provide the United States with enough wind power to satisfy its electrical needs. Wind is also one of the cheapest sources of electricity.
●Hybrid Cars and Wind Power
The basis for a new transportation energy economy is supported by two important technologies: hybrid cars by Toyota and advanced-design wind turbines. Besides using hybrid cars to reduce gasoline, wind-generated electricity to power automobiles would be the next step. Using this method, people could use electricity for short-distance travel (e.g. shopping) and save gasoline for longer trips. The total reduction of gasoline use from both hybrids and wind-powered electricity would be 70%.
●Converting Sunlight to Electricity
There is another nearly limitless source of energy beside wind - the sun. Solar cells are an extremely helpful alternative for developing countries. For example, in Andean villages the cost of a month’s worth of solar cells is about the cost of a month’s worth of candles. Villages in India also use solar cells rather than kerosene lamps, where the oil cost is higher than the cells.
●Energy from the Earth
The earth itself is also a source of heat energy, which escapes either through conduction or through hot springs and geysers. And geothermal energy is unlimited and will last as long as the earth lasts. Geothermal energy is used to generate electricity and directly heat buildings, greenhouses, and agricultural ponds, as well as being a heat source for industrial processes.
●Cutting Carbon Emissions Fast
The cheapest and quickest way to cut carbon emissions is to raise the efficiency of energy use. The other alternative would be to develop renewable sources of energy. Until a short time ago, the only widely considered substitute to oil was biofuels. But now wind-generated electricity is becoming popular, mostly because of its low cost and large quantity.
Among ethanol sources, sugarcane is definitely the most efficient source in land and energy use. The only problem with sugarcane and palm oil is that they both are grown in tropical and subtropical regions, which means that some tropical forests need to be cleared in order to grow these plants.
For the United States, wind energy will probably play a major role in the new energy economy. Wind-energy can supply electricity for cooking, heating, cooling, powering automobiles, and producing steel. For countries, especially developing ones, this energy switch will require more labor, which means more employment. These new energy sources are also unlimited, unlike the oil, gas, and coal which is currently used today.
●What We Can Do About It
We, as Buddhists, can help by not misusing resources and treating our earth lightly, because we need to pass these resources on to future generations, or else they will be left with nothing. So what can we do to save energy?
There are some simple steps anyone can take: 1.We can drive less. Instead of driving, we can walk, ride bicycles, or carpool. The exercise would be healthy as well as efficient. 2. We can be aware of our surroundings. For example, we can use fluorescent lightbulbs instead of incandescent ones. This would save energy as well as money. 3. We can educate. Children as well as adults can learn more about how much renewable energy can save, and share this awareness with others. 4. We can slowly shift our community from consuming energy to renewing energy. Every solar panel and every efficient appliance brings us closer to becoming a fully sustainable society.
現在要和大家分享一些令人憂心的事實，這些事實是人類正迅速地毀滅地球。第一個事實是森林急速萎縮以及我們必須付出的代價。人類大量砍伐木材，所造成的洪水氾濫和土石流，奪走了無數的生命。在十二紀初，地球上的森林面積大約五十億公頃，到目前為止只剩下 39 億公頃。從 1990 年開始，開發中國家砍伐木材的速度是一年 1300 萬公頃，平均每 10 年損失 6% 的森林。雖然人類已經在努力重新造林，但熱帶雨林極難重建，摧毀之後成為荒地。
更糟糕的是，許多石油公司表示，在 2004 年他們的生產量比開發量要多，這表示石油越來越難發掘了。有人預測說，世界上只剩下百分之五的石油尚未被開發。好比說，地質學家華特•楊魁斯說在 2004 年，世界生產了三百零五億桶的石油，不過卻只發現了七十五億桶的新石油。
柯瑞格•卡克斯所形容的毀滅漩渦裡。他說：「生態和社會方面的失敗，形成惡性循環，把各自推下漩渦陷入貧困、環境降級、不公平的社會、疾病以及暴力。」這份全球性的努力包括擴大森林保護和恢復土壤的保存與重建，符合自然界的水需求、漁業的重生以及保護動植物的多樣化。
What I’m going to share is some very disturbing and worrisome facts, the facts that we are rapidly destroying our planet, the Earth. The first fact is the shrinking forests and the price we have to pay for it. Tree cutting is followed by several severe flooding and heavy loss of life of man’s lives. At the beginning of 12 century, the Earth’s forested areas were estimated at 5 billion hectares. Since then it has shrunk to 3.9 billion hectares. Since 1990, the forests lost in developing countries have averaged 13 millions hectares a year. Overall the developing world is losing 6% of its forests per decade. Despite the fact that people are restoring forests, tropical forests that are cleared rarely recovered and become wastelands.
3. We can educate. Children as well as adults can learn more about how much renewable energy can save, and share this awareness with others. 4. We can slowly shift our community from consuming energy to renewing energy. Every solar panel and every efficient appliance brings us closer to becoming a fully sustainable society.